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New Yorkers will discover the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a mayoral election that has matched two very different Democrats against each other. The contest has become an acrimonious face-off, laced with alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party performs in next year's midterm elections.

The Rising Progressive

On the left side is Zohran Mamdani, the young democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is Andrew Cuomo, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

With days to go, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has outpaced his rival by significant margins in every poll conducted in October, and it is very much the progressive's race to throw away.

The Controversial Campaign

However, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid allegations of misconduct, has made it clear he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt fashion. He has trashed his opponent's objectives as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a series of racist stereotypes and showed Mamdani freeing a convicts.

It's been a rather grubby end to an election that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its response to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

National Implications

If the progressive secures a clear victory, the party establishment who have declined to support his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' frustration at inequality, inflation and the political elite. It would be hard for the Senate leader and the House leader not to embrace at least a portion of the candidate's progressive proposals about economic justice, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party perhaps not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president in 2016.

Conversely, if Cuomo, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a remarkable comeback win, it could reinforce the party's current model of cautious, lackluster resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York rejection of the progressive's progressive, positive message could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the wisest course is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked across the country.

Campaign Energy

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that his backers are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been evident during the race. The candidate's engaging content on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for the city and his readiness to actually get out and meet people in the city has drawn an force of over fifty thousand supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the former governor has turned to negative campaigning in recent weeks.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might stick, the independent has concentrated on attacking the candidate personally. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to Indian parents, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with Maria Bartiromo, where the candidate claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom last week, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another terrorist incident.

Political Landscape

The line of attack echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A group of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the last presidential race, have invested heavily into trying to get the independent into office, as other powerful voices have urged Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Political Histories

For the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are worried, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, few had heard of him, and in reality, few even noticed.

Cuomo, by comparison, entered smoothly into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became the state's leader in 2011, 17 years after his parent, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

Mamdani, who was voted in to the state legislature in recently, does not have the comparable background. But his commitment to providing free buses and affordable child services – along with the rent control promise – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and rising criminal activity, and his vow to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage emerged suggesting him implying the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the police is on your neck, it’s been influenced by the Israeli military,” Mamdani said in the clip, filmed at a DSA gathering in 2023. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Emotional Response

With the election nearing, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

Mamdani responded to the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle advised to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where Muslims could embrace their full identities, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd